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prada handbags That coffee you re sipping cou

That coffee you re sipping could soon be more expensive

I don t drink wine and alcohol, Cappelli, 52, said after buying the $3.25 drink at Blue Bottle Coffee at San Francisco s Ferry Building, in the shadow of the Bay Bridge. Coffee is one of my pleasures in life. I would pay double. coffee industry as the cost of arabica beans used in high end brews skyrockets. Futures in New York jumped 85 percent this year to $2.053 a pound. By May, they may reach $3, the highest since 2011, said Judy Ganes Chase, an industry consultant in Panama City, Panama, who has been analyzing the market for three decades.

Arabica is off to its biggest rally to start a year in at least four decades after drought hurt crops in Brazil, the world s top grower. Eventually, that will mean higher bean costs for Keurig Green Mountain Inc. brand.

For now, sellers including Starbucks, the largest coffeehouse chain, say they re in no hurry to raise prices. Many have stockpiles of cheaper beans from before the rally. Even if they do start to charge more, history shows that s no deterrent for American consumers, the biggest drinkers.

I need it it s like crack, said Lindsay Cooper as she stood in line for her morning cup at Philz Coffee in Mission Bay, near AT Park, the San Francisco Giants baseball stadium. I feel like I m exposing a deep, dark secret. Is there some sort of coffee rehab? If so, hopefully mine has coffee. consumption still rose 1.2 percent from 2010 to 2.916 billion pounds, according to the International Coffee Organization in London. In the past decade, as domestic demand jumped 44 percent to 100.3 billion cups last year, spending rose even more, up 135 percent, data compiled by Cedarhurst, New York based researcher StudyLogic shows.

There s very low price elasticity of demand for coffee, said Paul Christopher, the St. Louis based chief international strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, which manages $1.4 trillion. Would people who like coffee regularly substitute tea, or soda, if prices rise? The answer is No.

Americans drink one of every four cups globally, 9.5 percent prada handbags more than No. 2 Brazil and two and a half times the amount consumed in Germany, ICO data show. demand is outside the home, in restaurants including McDonald s, coffee shops including Tim Hortons, and at work, up from 21 percent in 2004, StudyLogic estimates.

People still go out for their cup of joe, Nigel Travis, the chairman and chief executive officer of Canton, Mass. based Dunkin Brands Group, owner of the world s largest donut chain, said on a Feb. 6 conference call with analysts. It s a very ritualistic business.

In the past 12 months, Americans who drink coffee consumed about 1.7 cups a day on average, up from 1.4 cups a decade ago, StudyLogic estimates.

Marisa Smith, a 25 year old Brooklyn resident who drinks about two cups a day, said she doesn t pay much attention to prices when buying coffee at a shop.

Coffee for me is a social activity, Smith said at a Stumptown Coffee Roasters on West 29th Street in Manhattan. The shop charges $2.50 for a cup of Americano coffee, which can cost $7 if made with beans from El Salvador that fetch a whopping $42 per 12 ounce bag. It doesn t cost much when you think about how much we pay for alcohol beverages.

Prices may be more difficult to ignore this year. Among 24 raw materials tracked by the Standard Poor s GSCI Spot Index, coffee gained the most. The GSCI gauge is up 1.6 percent since Dec. 31; MSCI All Country World Index slid 0.2 percent.

C prada handbags offee rallied after as an unexpected dry spell in Brazil sparked concern that global demand for arabica will exceed production for the first time in five years. Southeast Brazil is having the driest summer since 1972. Outbreaks of a crop disease called leaf rust cut output by as much as 35 percent in Central America, including Costa Rica, where Starbucks is experimenting with more resilient hybrid trees. Department of Agriculture data show. Brazil produced 46 percent of last year s arabica crop. A bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds.

Global demand for all coffee ma prada handbags y exceed harvests in the 2014 2015 season that starts in October in most countries, estimates Volcafe Ltd. in Winterthur, Switzerland, after a surplus sent prices lower in 2013 for a third straight year.

Starbucks Chief Financial Officer Scott Maw said the Seattle based company already has secured more than a year s supply of physical inventory and contracts, reducing the need to raise prices for customers. Coffee accounts for 15 percent to 20 percent of the cost of goods sold and 10 percent of store operating expenses, he said.

We have virtually all of the 2014 prices locked and 40 percent of the company s needs for 2015 at prices slightly below the average cost for this year, Maw said March 11 at a presentation to analysts. Starbucks is in a better position with supplies and costs than it was during the last surge in futures, during 2010 and 2011, he said.

Dunkin Brands purchasing cooperative, owned by the company s franchisees, has locked in coffee for most of 2014, which will keep costs for this year relatively flat, Paul C. Carbone, the chief financial officer, said on the Feb. 6 conference call.

Keurig Green Mountain, the Waterbury, Vt, based seller of single cup brewing systems and coffee, has 100 percent of its needs for this year and quite a bit for 2015, Chief Financial Officer Frances Rathke said last month. Prices for the robusta variety are up 31 percent this year on London s NYSE Liffe exchange. The premium that arabica fetches over robusta has more than tripled in 2014, reaching a two year high of $1.0873 a pound on March 5.

The strong gains we ve seen could spur a change among companies to use more robusta coffee in their blends, Hernando de la Roche, a senior vice president at INTL FCStone in Miami, said in a telephone interview. This would reduce demand for arabica down the road, stalling the rally.

More expensive beans tend to mean higher prices for consumers. price of its Maxwell House and Yuban coffees by as much as 22 percent, Smucker imposed an 11 percent increase, and Starbucks raised the price of packaged coffees by as much as 12 percent. By the end of the year, arabica futures were down 27 percent from their peak, and companies rolled back retail increases.

We are not afraid of increasing our prices because everyone else will, too, said Aaron Ultimo, 35 prada handbags , owner of Ultimo Coffee, a cafe in Philadelphia ranked No. 1 among America s Best Coffee Shops by The Daily Meal, a culinary website. We usually go for the top tier coffee, and that s what we offered to our customers. We won t change the way we buy coffee, and we won t compromise on quality.

Felicia Wong, 24, said she feels the same way about the one or two cups of coffee she buys every day.

If the prices were raised 200 or 250 percent, I would probably drink less, the Brooklyn resident said while sipping a cup with a friend at one of five outlets in New York city run by Cafe Grumpy. Right now, I pay about $20 a pound for a Blue Bottle coffee. I believe paying for quality, not quantity.

prada handbags That coffee you are drinking m

That coffee you are drinking might no prada handbags t be so fair trade after all

Current rock bottom prices for coffee beans below cost for many of the region s growers and a crushing outbreak of coffee leaf rust, a fungus that slashes harvests, are making their lives a misery.

Although the picture is uneven, from the lush fields of Chiapas, in southern Mexico, to the Andean foothills, many growers are caught in the pincer.

The problem is at its most intense in Mexico, Centr prada handbags al America and Peru, which together produce roughly 30 million 132 pound sacks a year of arabica, the beans used in top end coffees.

It is a disaster. This has just deepened the poverty, says Eliseo Condor, of Mountain Coffee exporters, which groups together 600 small growers in the Chanchamayo region of central Peru.

The yellowish fungus eats leaves, causes unripe coffee beans to fall and can kill off swaths of trees. Although the reasons for the latest unprecedented outbreak are unclear, some suspect climate change.

Rust cut Mountain Coffee s 2013 harvest from 30,000 sacks to 22,000. That s despite the company s farmers using fungicide and fertilizer measures that have increased production costs by 10 percent.

Meanwhile, they are earning an average $175 per sack for their certified organic, fair trade and rainforest friendly beans, when their breakeven price is $180.

Yet Mountain Coffee s farmers, most of whom have just an acre or two of coffee as their only source of income, may prada handbags be among the lucky ones.

By growing certified coffee and having annual contracts for most of their harvest with eight regular buyers, in Europe and the United States, they are largely buffered from the worst effects of the coffee crisis.

Through the company, they also have access to expert assistance to deal with the rust blight and improve their productivity.

But for most small growers, that is not the case. Condor says many of his farmers independent neighbors have seen plants die.

Eduardo Montauban, who heads the Peruvian Chamber of Coffee and Cacao, says up to 30 percent of the country s annual harvest roughly 1 million sacks has been lost.

And the ICO says Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean have this year lost a further 2.7 million bags with the financial hit estimated at more than $1 billion.

Meanwhile, the current spot price of around $110 per sack for non certified arabica does not cover costs for most farmers. For that, Montauban estimates, it would need to hit $130 in the short term and $160 for long term sustainability.

Outside of Brazil and Colombia, the double whammy of low prices and rust is similar in much of Latin America.

Most growers in Guatemala are in real trouble. Coffee simply isn t viable at current prices, says Iliana Martinez, general manager of that country s Esquipulas coffee cooperative.

Production costs in the Central American nation are around $115 a sack for uncertified arabica, she adds, $5 less than the current spot price.

She expects many smallholder farmers to end up switching to more profitable crops or even emigrate to the US.

Those who do survive will only be able to do so because they can control labor costs, she adds.

On larger farms, where seasonal workers harvest the coffee, smaller harvests due to rust have cost jobs. Guatemala, Central America s No. 2 arabica exporter, has shed 72,500, according to national growers association Anacafe.

Neighboring El Salvador is also cutting tens of thousands of the temporary laborers who handpick the reddish brown fruit.

The low prices are in part the result of a global glut, including increased production in Brazil and Colombia, according to Mauricio Galindo of the ICO, which supports the global coffee industry and promotes price stability.

Both nations growers have been hit by low prices but unlike in other parts of Latin America were more proactive in preparing for the rust blight, including even developing hybrid strains of coffee that are more resistant to it.

As a result, Brazil now produces some 50 million sacks a year although about one fifth of that is robusta, used for some lower quality blends and instant coffee when previously that amount represented a peak harvest.

Meanwhile in Colombia, the biggest exporter of top end arabicas, production has recovered from recent lows of 7 million sacks a year and in 2013 hit 10 million.

Thanks to their improved production plus higher yields in Vietnam, there s a 10 million bag global surplus this year and the forecast for 2014 is 4.5 million bags, Galindo says.

The picture is prada handbags further complicated by growing global demand, especially from new markets such as China and India. Meanwhile, even the mature US market has grown 3 percent over the last year.

But that growing demand hasn t been strong enough to keep prices from sinking.

Coffee is a notorious boom and bust crop. The last bad crisis hit when Vietnam burst on the bean scene in the 1990s, flooding the market with cheap robustas and thrusting many Latin American growers into poverty.